New Delhi: In November final yr, All India United Democratic Entrance (AIUDF) founder Badruddin Ajmal landed on the Guwahati airport in Assam for the primary time in 9 months and acquired a heat welcome. Supporters crowded the arrivals space, taking selfies and shouting slogans praising him.
However his airport reception masked a a lot harsher political actuality.
The AIUDF, as soon as an essential power in Assam’s Muslim-majority areas and a spoiler to Congress’ calculations, was worn out within the 2024 normal elections, and Ajmal himself suffered a landslide defeat.
Now, because the Congress prepares for this yr’s meeting polls within the state, it has closed the door on a possible alliance with the Ajmal Occasion, underscoring a longstanding uneasy relationship formed by mutual mistrust that has grown lately with the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Occasion in Assam.
Ajmal, who has declared belongings of over Rs 155 million, misplaced the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat he had gained in 2009, 2014 and 2019 to Congress’ Rakibul Hussain in 2024 by a margin of over 1 million votes.
The AIUDF itself drew a clean vote within the Lok Sabha polls. It was the primary election for the reason that social gathering’s formation in October 2005 wherein it didn’t win a single seat within the state, after Ajmal, who was then the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind Assam chapter president, put collectively a multi-Muslim-led platform.
Since then, the Congress has maintained a aware distance from the AIUDF, loudly rejecting any proposals for an alliance forward of the 2026 polls. Earlier this week, Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi dominated out such a chance.
“Within the wake of the AIUDF’s full failure within the final Lok Sabha elections, the political calculation of the AIUDF to align itself with the Congress and cross the electoral hurdle within the 2026 meeting elections is totally misguided,” Gaurav stated.
The remarks have been in response to Mr Ajmal’s assertion that “unity” was the one strategy to defeat the ruling Bharatiya Janata Occasion and that he would “100 per cent think about” an alliance with the Congress if the social gathering got here ahead.
Within the 2021 Assam polls, the AIUDF was a part of the Congress-led opposition alliance that unsuccessfully challenged the Bharatiya Janata Occasion. Months after the elections, the Congress severed ties with the social gathering, accusing it of working on the behest of the Bharatiya Janata Occasion and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
“A deep dive into Assam’s political previous exhibits that for the reason that delivery of the AIUDF, the Congress has handled Mr. Ajmal’s motives as suspect. In that context, his dedication in 2021 was an anomaly and after his election defeat, he got here below heavy criticism even from Congress leaders, together with Mr. Digvijaya Singh,” an official of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) energetic in Assam advised ThePrint.
Additionally learn: Lack of growth, want for change — why Assam’s Dhubri sacked AIUDF chief Ajmal
The trajectory of AIUDF and Congress
The AIUDF was shaped in 2005 within the wake of the Supreme Courtroom’s repeal of the Unlawful Immigration (Dedication by Courtroom) Act, 1983, when Indira Gandhi was Prime Minister.
Beneath the legislation, the burden of proving that somebody was an unlawful immigrant in Assam was on the complainant, not the suspect. The Assam United Democratic Entrance (AUDF) (later renamed AIUDF) was born throughout this era of rising unrest amongst Muslims from East Bengal.
In line with the 2011 census, Muslims represent 34 p.c of Assam’s inhabitants.
Within the 2006 Assam elections, the AIUDF made a powerful debut, profitable 10 seats and rising as an element within the decline of the Congress from 71 to 53 seats. The state management within the Assam Congress, sensing a risk from Mr. Ajmal to its captive Muslim vote base, felt the necessity to give him no additional room to develop.
The then Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi conveyed this in clear phrases to the Congress excessive command, which had no hesitation in accepting Ajmal. Nonetheless, Gogoi made it clear that he would settle for Ajmal provided that the AIUDF merged with the Congress.
Mr. Gogoi believed that an alliance with the AIUDF wouldn’t solely loosen the Congress’ grip on the Muslim vote, but additionally alienate ethnic minorities just like the Ahoms in a state the place cultural anxieties about immigration and demographic change have lengthy pushed politics.
The AICC finally adopted Gogoi’s coverage. “Ajmal is certainly one of us and we’ve requested him to affix the social gathering,” Veerappa Moily, then AICC’s Assam chief, advised reporters in 2008.
Within the 2011 Assam polls, the Congress gained 78 out of 126 seats below Gogoi’s management, regaining an absolute majority. Because the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was depleted of members, Ajmal’s AIUDF emerged as the principle opposition social gathering, profitable 18 seats and turning into the second largest social gathering.
Nonetheless, it was the AIUDF’s efficiency within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, wherein it gained three of Assam’s 14 seats, that after once more alarmed the Congress, which was already weakened by bitter factionalism.
Within the 2016 state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Occasion ousted the Gogoi-led Congress from energy after three consecutive phrases. AIUDF’s seat rely fell from 18 to 13, whereas Congress gained 26 seats.
Till the AIUDF succeeded in retaining solely Ajmal’s Dhubri constituency within the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Gogoi tried to distance the Congress from the social gathering. Nonetheless, he softened his opposition in his later years and died a number of months earlier than the 2021 election.
In 2021, Congress lastly added AIUDF to the insurgent alliance. Nonetheless, the outcomes have been overwhelming, with each events gaining solely three seats every with the BJP returning to energy.
“We didn’t acquire something from that alliance. As a substitute, we suffered losses within the Higher Assam area, which has the biggest seat within the 126-seat meeting. The BJP has succeeded in making us a Muslim social gathering. After delimitation, the seats the place Muslim votes will determine the end result The quantity has come all the way down to round 23. Why would Muslims vote for Ajmal realizing that it’s going to make no distinction in eliminating the BJP? We now have to persuade them that the correct selection is to assist the Congress,” stated an AICC official.
“The B-Group of the BJP”
Branding the AIUDF because the BJP’s ‘B group’ can also be a part of the Congress’ technique to forestall fragmentation of the Muslim vote. As a part of these efforts, the social gathering has highlighted Ajmal and his household’s “hyperlinks with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma” throughout election campaigns, particularly in minority-dominated districts.
“Mr. Ajmal is simply a mouthpiece of the BJP in addition to different political events, together with AIMIM. As he claims, he has no reference to the UPA (then Congress-led United Progressive Alliance),” AICC normal secretary (communications) Jairam Ramesh had stated in an announcement in 2023.
The Congress has already introduced its intention to area candidates in 100 seats and is at the moment in talks with Left events and Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal for partnership within the upcoming Assam polls. Akhil Gogoi’s bitter relationship with Ajmal is just not misplaced on the Congress management.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Additionally learn: From allies to adversaries: How Congress-AIUDF relations deteriorated in Assam
