Because the Election Fee (EC) strikes forward with the Particular Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, opposition events have come underneath hearth over the controversial train, alleging that some voters have been topic to “deletion” of their names from the rolls.
Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has already challenged the SIR within the Supreme Courtroom and will have appeared within the Supreme Courtroom to argue in particular person, whereas Samajwadi Celebration (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has additionally introduced his intention to maneuver the Supreme Courtroom.
At a press convention in Lucknow earlier this week, Yadav claimed that the EC, on the behest of the Bharatiya Janata Celebration, has turned many marginalized teams like Muslims, Dalits and Different Backward Courses (OBCs) into the SP’s core constituency.
Yadav alleged that “focused deletions” had been being carried out, particularly within the Congress phase of UP, the place the Bharatiya Janata Celebration misplaced within the 2024 parliamentary elections. “How huge was the distinction? If we take a look at the 2022 Meeting polls, will a change of simply 5,000 votes have an effect on the result?” Yadav stated.
Mamata Banerjee, whereas alleging manipulation of voter rolls via the SIR train, expressed related considerations and stated at a press convention in Kolkata on January 13, “They (EC officers) are usually not accepting domicile certificates and different paperwork from the state authorities. They (opposition BJP) suppose they will beat Bengal by doing one thing like that. They’re enjoying the identical sport in Bengal as they performed in Bihar and Maharashtra.”
Sources within the SP and TMC stated each events are involved about seats the place the vote margin was low within the final UP and Bengal meeting polls and a swing of three,000-5,000 votes might tip the scales in favor of the BJP within the subsequent elections.
An evaluation of the 2021 Bengal and 2022 UP meeting polls and comparability with the 2024 meeting elections exhibits that there’s a lengthy record of seats the place the margin of victory within the meeting elections was lower than 5,000 votes and the main get together modified between the meeting elections and the 2024 meeting elections.
Bengal is scheduled to carry meeting elections in March-April this 12 months, whereas UP is anticipated to go to polls in early 2027.
west bengal
Within the 2021 meeting elections, the TMC received the state by a landslide by profitable 215 out of 294 seats, whereas the BJP emerged as the principle opposition get together by profitable 77 seats, though there have been 35 seats the place the outcomes had been determined by a distinction of lower than 5,000 votes.
Of those 35 seats, the BJP received 22 seats and the TMC received 12 seats. Within the Kalimpong seat, an impartial candidate defeated the BJP by a margin of three,870 votes.
Low margin seats in 2021 West Bengal meeting polls.
Mamata Banerjee misplaced her personal election from Nandigram metropolis. She later turned a member of the Lok Sabha after profitable the Bhawanipur seat in a by-election. There, she narrowly missed out on deputy-turned-Bharatiya Janata Celebration chief Suvendu Adhikari by a margin of 1,956 votes, however she selected to face him in his residence turf.
By the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, 12 of the 35 parliamentary segments in Bengal had modified arms. Whereas the BJP handed over six low-profit segments it received in 2021 to the TMC in 2024, the TMC misplaced six such segments to the BJP.
Within the 2024 Indian Meeting polls, the BJP maintained its lead in 16 segments that it had narrowly received in 2021. Nonetheless, TMC was in a position to preserve its lead in solely six segments.
The common vote share for these 35 seats within the 2021 meeting polls was 2,680 votes. Nonetheless, within the Lok Sabha polls, the common lead distinction jumped to 13,367 votes.
Out of those 35 seats within the 2021 meeting elections, the CPI(M) performed a pernicious function in 17 seats by securing extra votes than the vote margin. Congress occupied third place with 9 such seats.
The smallest margin of victory in 2021 was 57 votes recorded by Dinhata’s BJP. Within the 2016 meeting polls, the TMC received this seat whereas the BJP completed a distant third.
uttar pradesh
Out of UP’s 403 seats, 53 seats had a margin of lower than 5,000 votes within the 2022 polls. The BJP received a majority of those seats with 27 seats, whereas its major rival SP received 21 seats. The Apna Dal (Soneilal) and NISHAD events, allies of the BJP, received three and one seats respectively, whereas the Congress received one seat.
Seats with low margins within the 2022 Uttar Pradesh meeting polls.
In whole, the BJP received 255 seats and the SP received 111 seats within the 2022 meeting polls.
A supply of concern for each the BJP and the SP is the result of the 2024 Meeting polls, the place the main get together has changed into rival alliances in 29 out of 53 Meeting segments in comparison with the 2022 Meeting polls. Though the Bharatiya Janata Celebration suffered a significant setback, the 18 parliamentary segments it received within the 2022 meeting will give the SP a lead within the 2024 meeting polls. The BJP additionally surrendered its result in the Congress in three segments and to the Azad Samaj Celebration (Kanshi Ram) in two. In 2024, the SP additionally managed to take the lead in two meeting segments received by the Apna Dal (Soneilal) and one meeting phase received by the NISHAD get together within the 2022 polls.
In whole, the SP received 21 meeting segments within the 2024 meeting elections, which the NDA received within the 2022 meeting elections.
In the meantime, within the 2024 meeting polls, the Bharatiya Janata Celebration was in a position to preserve its lead in simply 4 meeting segments that it received within the 2022 meeting polls, whereas the SP retained 12 meeting segments and ceded solely three segments to the BJP.
Within the remaining seats within the 53 low-margin segments, the main events modified arms in 2022 and 2024 however remained inside their respective alliances.
The common vote distinction in these 53 seats rose from 2,144 votes within the 2022 Meeting polls to twenty,112 votes within the 2024 Meeting polls.
