Chennai: After days of post-poll political lobbying, back-channel negotiations, and intense maneuvering, C. Joseph Vijay lastly succeeded in mustering sufficient help to safe an invite from the governor to kind a authorities. Nonetheless, that quantity was solely a tiny majority.
It was after 25 AIADMK MLAs divided their ranks and expressed help for TVK that Vijay felt he had the numbers to provide him a cushion throughout the ground check on Could 13. This led to hypothesis that AIADMK rebels can be included within the cupboard.
With the addition of IUML and VCK MLAs to the cupboard on Friday, the celebration has reached full membership with sanctioned membership of 35 members.
Whereas the AIADMK rebels led by CV Shanmugam declare that they had no expectations of energy after they prolonged help to Mr. Vijay, analysts say this disdain is deliberate and calculated.
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allies draw the road
When the meeting election outcomes had been introduced on Could 4, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam stated: (TVK) secured 108 seats. Nevertheless, since Mr. Vijay received two seats and needed to vacate one seat, the overall quantity was successfully 107. Because of this, the celebration fell 11 wanting a majority of 118.
The TVK may attain 120 seats because the Congress prolonged its help with 5 seats, later the Left (CPI, CPM) prolonged its help, and the IUML and VCK introduced help with two seats every.
The help of the AIADMK rebels’ 25 MLAs added to the energy of the federal government, though it was not obligatory for TVK to show a majority.
When cupboard growth was being mentioned, TVK allies drew the road. They won’t help the celebration if it joins palms with the AIADMK, which stays an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Celebration.
Essentially the most urgent constraint for Vijay was the ideological stance of his main alliance companions, together with left-wing events such because the Communist Celebration of India and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. The IUML had additionally expressed that it didn’t wish to affiliate with any faction even not directly related to the BJP.
Though insurgent AIADMK leaders declare to symbolize a unique faction, the AIADMK led by Edappadi Ok. Palaniswami is aligned with the BJP, and lots of the insurgent faction’s leaders are recognized to have shut ties to the celebration.
Furthermore, the rebels who cut up from the EPS camp could have distanced themselves from Palaniswami, however within the eyes of the CPI and VCK, they haven’t distanced themselves sufficient from the BJP.
AIADMK rebels enter the cupboard Mr. Vijay’s relationship along with his accomplice, whose help was important, would have been instantly strained. Not just for the survival of his authorities; For ideological credibility.
Analysts additionally stated that Mr. Vijay’s criticism of the AIADMK within the run-up to the elections was nonetheless recent in folks’s minds.
Throughout a rally in Namakkal, Mr. Vijay had requested the AIADMK why it had “forgotten” its chief J. Jayalalithaa’s stance of alienating the saffron celebration. “MGR’s supporters usually are not supporting an alliance with the BJP, however the celebration has forgotten its chief. What has the BJP finished for Tamil Nadu?” he requested throughout the rally.
Political analyst Arun Kumar stated, “SP Velumani and CV Shanmugam have good relations with the BJP leaders in Delhi. They might have a rift throughout the AIADMK, however the BJP has remained silent about it and can proceed its ties with each factions. In such a state of affairs, it’s not supreme for TVK to align with the AIADMK insurgent faction until it has a transparent stand with the BJP.”
Vijay’s marketing campaign towards the Dravidian duopoly
In his 2026 election marketing campaign, Vijay positioned himself as a substitute for the long-standing Dravidian duopoly in Tamil Nadu. Mr. Vijay stated Tamil Nadu had been “trapped” in a cycle between the DMK and the AIADMK for many years and the state needed a change.
He stated each events had been governing equally and accused them of corruption and neglect of the folks.
In such a state of affairs, bringing within the AIADMK rebels into the cupboard will seem like a setback to the stance Mr. Vijay has constructed towards the duopoly, analysts say.
“TVK has introduced itself as a real different and bringing in insurgent AIADMK leaders into the cupboard will immediately undermine its narrative, even whether it is handy within the brief time period. “Prime Minister Vijay is cautious about taking such steps at this level, contemplating his authorities is new and he doesn’t wish to destroy the narrative he has constructed within the minds of the folks towards the duopoly,” stated political analyst A. Ramasamy.
Throughout a celebration occasion in Mamallapuram in January 2026, Mr. Vijay stated folks shouldn’t vote for both of the 2 Dravidian events.
He additionally stated that the “powers of evil” oblique assault on DMK, Additionally, “corrupt forces” shouldn’t come to energy, which is a veiled assault on the AIADMK.
“The folks of Tamil Nadu are disenchanted and needed somebody of their management who will work for them. They’re disenchanted after voting for each (DMK and AIADMK) and now they place confidence in TVK,” he stated whereas addressing celebration staff in Mamallapuram.
TVK leaders themselves imagine that voters who supported TVK anticipating a break from outdated politics wouldn’t have welcomed the participation of AIADMK leaders. Vijay’s advisors had been additionally conscious of this optics drawback from the start.
Uncertainty inside AIADMK
Whereas 25 AIADMK insurgent MLAs supported the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam throughout the ground check, they did so not as a result of they had been all for coming to energy however as a result of they revered the mandate of the folks.
The rebels’ personal future throughout the AIADMK stays unresolved. The faction led by CV Shanmugam and SP Velumani needs to carry a normal assembly, however the EPS has delayed it and no formal discover has been served by both facet to legally pursue the cut up.
Though the divisions throughout the AIADMK are very clear, the rebels’ repeated statements that they don’t want the celebration to separate however need the facility construction to be revised point out that reconciliation with Palaniswami will not be totally unattainable.
A number of voices within the insurgent camp say unification talks may start if the EPS convenes a gathering to debate the matter.
In an interview with ThePrint, CV Shanmugam stated, “Our solely grievance is throughout the celebration and we want to resolve it. We didn’t lengthen help to TVK anticipating to be provided energy. It’s as much as TVK to determine on the identical, however we’ve by no means had any ambition to win a place within the cupboard or dissolve the celebration.”
Resulting from inside ambiguities throughout the insurgent factions themselves, their inclusion within the cupboard can’t be trusted. Till the rebels sever ties with each the EPS and the broader AIADMK-BJP alliance, they’ll stay a bunch that TVK stays skeptical of.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
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