No official announcement has been made by the previous Estrangi cousin, Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut mentioned on Friday.
Nevertheless, Raj’s political profession is outlined by frequent adjustments in loyalty and a blended sign with enemies to Maharashtra’s allies. His assembly with Prime Minister Devendra Fadnavis and different leaders of the Mahayuti Alliance, sparked hypothesis a couple of partnership with the BJP. It sees it as a strategic disruptor who positive factors help from the identical Marathi-speaking electors who kind the core voter base of Uddhav.
SENA (UBT) – MNS Alliance for Native Physique elections are nonetheless underneath negotiation, however the historical past of MNS elections reveals its impression has been restricted because it challenged the primary Lok Sabha and parliamentary elections in 2009.
Within the Lok Sabha ballot, MNS has by no means gained a seat to date. Within the state meeting elections, MNS gained 13 seats and 5.7% vote share in 2009, then gained one seat in 2014 and 2019, earlier than falling to zero in 2024.
Nonetheless, Raj’s push for regional id resonating with town’s Marathi voters has allowed MNS to be higher within the three municipal company elections they’ve fought to date, boosting SENA (UBT) outlook.
2006-2009
Within the first set of municipal company elections contested by MNS between 2006 and 2009, the get together gained 45 seats in 12 firms, with an total vote share of 5.87%. There’s a whole of two,118 seats, spreading to 22 companies in Maharashtra.
The perfect efficiency of the MNS happened in Nashik, with the get together profitable 12 of the 108 whole seats at 12.97%, adopted by 8 of Pune’s 144 seats with a vote share of seven.74%. MNS recorded the second highest vote share in BMC at 10.43%. This was sufficient to win seven of the 228 seats.
The undivided Shiv Sena and the Congress have been the dominant events of Nasik and Brihanbai from a seating standpoint, whereas the undivided NCP was within the pole place of Pune. In Nashik and Brihanmumbai, by the way in which, the vote share of MNS exceeded the BJP turnout respectively, at 10.44% and eight.69% respectively, not far behind the NCP’s 11.29% at Brihanmumbai.
Of the 9 firms inside the Mumbai Metro Space (MMR), MNS has managed to win seats in Brihan Mumbai, Thane and Mirabayandar.
An evaluation of end positions within the survey of 12 municipal companies held from 2006 to 2009 reveals that with 45 seats MNS gained, Shivsena and NCP have been key rivals, profitable runners with 15 and 13 seats respectively.
Nevertheless, MNS got here in second with a complete of 63 seats, of which 25 have been gained by Shivsena, 13 within the Congress, 12 within the NCP and seven within the BJP.
To tally seats in these elections, MNS and Shiv Sena would have benefited most from the alliance, however their whole seats and voting shares wouldn’t have been sufficient to seal the complete majority but. The NCP was most likely the one get together that would win a majority by itself in two firms, Navi Mumbai and Pimpuritinchuwad, as a result of aggressive nature of native polls in cities the place independents and native events or fronts have a big presence.
2009-2014
MNS tracked its debut with a powerful efficiency in native authorities elections held from 2009 to 2014. They fought towards all however two of the 26 firms, profitable 162 of the full 2,543 seats they voted, securing an total vote share of 12.43%.
Like earlier municipal election units, MNS’ greatest reveals happened at Nasik, Pune, Brihanbai and Kalyan Donbibli (the latter two fall underneath MMR).
With 40 seats and a 28.24% vote share, MNS was Nashik’s one of many largest events. Though the 122-member group didn’t attain an overt majority, they obtained sufficient exterior help to steer the corporate. Right here, its foremost rivals have been the undivided Shiv Sena and the NCP, which gained 19 and 20 seats, respectively, however the Congress wasn’t too late with 15 seats.
The get together, which gained seats in 17 firms, gained 130 seats, 29 out of Pune’s 152 seats, 28 out of 227 seats in Brihanbai, 27 out of 107 seats in Kalyandon Bibli, 12 out of 75 seats in Jalgaon and 77. The MNS has acquired seats for everybody besides two firms underneath the MMR.
Once more in Pune, the place the NCP was dominated, the MNS was capable of outperform 28 seats within the Congress, 26 within the BJP and 15 within the Shiv Sena. Nevertheless, Shiv Sena and Congress maintained their lead with 75 and 52 seats respectively. At Kalyan-Dombivli, solely Shiv Sena, who had 31 seats, was forward of the MNS. In Jalgaon, which was dominated by regional events, it gained the second-highest seat amongst main political events.
On the vote share situation, MNS recorded its greatest efficiency at 28.72% in Kalyan Dongbibli. Nashik’s 28.24% vote share was the get together’s subsequent highest tally and the very best of all events to the company. MNS was the second-highest voter in Brihanmumbai and Pune, with voting shares at 20.67% and 20.6%, respectively. Thane’s third highest voting inventory was 15.41%, whereas Jalgaon was 13.22%.
With a complete of 162 seats gained by the MNS, the primary rivals that completed as runner-up have been Shiv Sena with 56 seats, 28 BJP and 25-member meeting Shiv Sena. 37.
Going by these numbers, it’s potential that the alliance of MNS and Shiv Sena has proved extra useful than that of BJP, however neither mixture exceeded the bulk mark in any firm, aside from Kalyan-Dombivli, the place the full seats of MNS and Shiv Sena reached a full majority.
2014-2019
On the final set of the most recent company elections in Maharashtra from 2014 to 2019, MNS suffered a significant setback and raised questions on political affect in city areas. The get together, which competes throughout 21 of the 27 firms, gained simply 26 seats in 26 of the full 2,736 seats, with an total vote share of three.56%.
MNS seat counts declined in all however one firm, and its vote share decreased in all however two. The perfect efficiency, with solely 9 seats, was at Kalyan-Dombivli, adopted by seven at Brihanmumbai and 5 at Nashik. Shiv Sena and BJP have been neck and neck within the leads of Brihanmumbai and Kalyan-Dombivli, with seats tally of 84-82 and 52-42 respectively, whereas BJP was a transparent entrance runner for Nashik, with 66 seats. The one different firms that MNS had gained seats have been Chandrapur and Pune, with two seats, and one seated at Pimpri-Chinchwad.
MNS’ comparatively negligible sheet tallies meant that even at the most effective efficiency, they solely performed a small function in figuring out the end result. For instance, in Brihanmumbai and Nashik, if MNS seats have been added to the tally, neither the BJP nor the Shiv Sena would have had an overt majority (however the Shiv Sena-MNS mixture was shortened by one seat in Kalyan-Dombivli). Nevertheless, in Nashik, the most effective results of the MNS, solely the BJP was capable of safe a full majority.
Relating to voting shares, MNS was the highest of Kalyan-Dombivli at 10.31%, adopted by 10.01%, Brihanmumbai at 7.73%, Pune 6.44%, and Thane at 5.57%. Among the many 12 firms, the get together didn’t exceed the 1% vote share mark.
Some firms have seen a decline in MNS’s vote share from earlier polls. In Kalyan-Dombivli, its vote share fell by 18.41 proportion factors, whereas in Nashik it fell by 18.23 proportion factors. Pune noticed a 14.16 proportion factors lower, whereas Brihanmumbai noticed a 12.94% lower.
These numbers spotlight the decline in recognition of MNS, even for firms that had a big impression simply 5 years in the past.
