Chennai: Actor-turned-politician Mr. Vijay’s electoral prospects stay largely unaffected by the Karur assault, a confidential examine commissioned by the ruling DMK predicts. The survey, accessed by ThePrint, means that Mr. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) might safe 23% of the vote share in subsequent 12 months’s Tamil Nadu polls if it goes alone.
The survey was carried out from October 1 to 9 after 41 individuals misplaced their lives as a consequence of crowding throughout Mr. Vijay’s rally in Karur.
The scores, obtained by ThePrint, counsel that Mr. Vijay’s TVK nonetheless enjoys sturdy traction throughout Tamil Nadu and is prone to emerge as a powerful competitor to the DMK.
The survey coated 2.91 million respondents, with a mean pattern measurement of 1,245 individuals per constituency. Respondents had been requested about their opinion on TVK becoming a member of palms with NDA and whether or not they would assist Vijay’s celebration if he acted alone.
In Tamil Nadu, the NDA primarily contains the BJP and the AIADMK.
In a situation the place AIADMK, BJP and TVK be part of forces underneath the banner of NDA, confidential polls give DMK 50 per cent vote share, NDA 35 per cent, Seeman’s NTK 12 per cent and others 3 per cent.
The survey additionally predicts that whereas the BJP, AIADMK and TVK might consolidate round 35 per cent of votes collectively, inner friction inside the AIADMK and resistance in Tamil Nadu to the BJP’s ideological leanings might restrict the scope for such an alliance.
Within the second situation, if TVK had been to go it alone, DMK’s vote share would drop to 45% and AIADMK and BJP’s mixed 22%, with Mr. Vijay’s celebration doubtlessly getting 23% of the votes. In such a situation, Seaman’s assist for NTK might drop to five%, the survey predicts.
“Within the situation the place he (Vijay) campaigns alone, we see him consuming into the vote share of all political events within the state,” a strategist concerned within the survey advised ThePrint on situation of anonymity.
Whereas the survey reveals constructive tendencies for the DMK, it additionally means that Vijay might be a possible challenger in the long term. “Public opinion signifies that Vijay might emerge as a powerful challenger to the DMK in 2029 and 2031,” the analysis report mentioned.
Nonetheless, the survey doesn’t point out what would occur if TVK joins forces with AIADMK and each events contest elections independently of the BJP.
The strategist cited earlier mentioned such a chance had been mentioned internally. “Whereas research in such situations are additionally deliberate, the battle on the bottom seems to be primarily state autonomy versus federal authorities.”
One other strategist concerned within the course of advised ThePrint that Mr. Vijay’s reputation seems to be linked to a point of political credibility. “Though we imagine that TVK at the moment lacks an organized cadre construction, the survey outcomes additionally counsel that his reputation is mirrored in his vote share, a development that might redefine the political order in Tamil Nadu within the coming years.”
Though most celebration members had been unaware of the confidential survey, DMK spokesperson and MLA CVMP Ezilarasan mentioned the findings assist the concept the 2026 Meeting polls might take the type of an ideological battle between the DMK and the NDA.
“The saffron celebration has all the time positioned itself because the core of the anti-DMK entrance. Whereas the 2 situations within the survey are a constructive development for the DMK, together with what occurred within the TVK case within the Supreme Court docket yesterday, the third situation (AIADMK and TVK) may also be a battle between Tamil Nadu and Delhi, so will probably be a constructive development for the DMK,” he advised ThePrint.
TVK, on the opposite hand, went a step additional and claimed that the graph would solely rise because the election approached. Get together spokesperson Raj Mohan advised ThePrint that the celebration doesn’t need any validation from the DMK because it is aware of that Mr. Vijay’s credibility amongst voters is undamaged.
“Simply 48 hours after the Karur push-in incident, we’ve discovered that the individuals on the bottom are with us and our credibility is undamaged. Subsequently, we are not looking for any validation from the DMK. Our credibility and vote share will additional enhance within the coming months and particulars of them will come out within the upcoming polls in November and December,” he mentioned.
In the meantime, the AIADMK rejected the findings citing DMK’s “lack of credibility”.
A celebration spokesperson, who didn’t want to be named, advised ThePrint that the survey was completed solely to fulfill the DMK management. “If the DMK authorities’s knowledge isn’t dependable, we can’t anticipate the survey numbers to be dependable. Because the strategic agency is employed by the DMK, the report will certainly be offered to fulfill the bosses. So allow them to be glad with their numbers. The election outcomes will present the true knowledge.”
(Edited by Amrutanshu Arora)
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