In Neuri Tola, a Yadav-dominated village in Darbhanga’s Gaura Bauram constituency, the street resulting in the Malla colony, a fishing group belonging to the Extraordinarily Backward Courses (EBC), was submerged in water following steady rain. To get there, you need to wade by way of ankle-deep water. Three younger males scroll by way of Instagram Reels as older males focus on politics in a courtyard.
Most say they’ll vote for RJD.
“This time, folks need change. Nitish Kumar shouldn’t be dangerous, however the authorities has did not create jobs. Take a look at the scenario within the villages. And with all his EBC politics, what have we received from Nitish Kumar?” says Vikas Sahani, 25.
Jawahar Sahani, 60, who was listening to the dialog, laughed and interjected, “None of that issues. The roads, the facility we use, every thing is a present of Nitish. We’re voting for the RJD due to Mukesh Sahani, who belongs to our caste and can turn out to be the deputy chief minister if the RJD wins.”
Mukesh Sahani, a local of Darbhanga, heads the Vikashir Insaan Get together (VIP), an ally of the Mahagathbandhan alliance. He calls himself the “Son of Malla”, champions the reason for the Nishad (Mallla) caste group, and initiatives himself because the voice of the boatmen and fishermen communities of northern Bihar’s river belts.
Mukesh Sahani’s youthful brother Santosh Sahani is the candidate from Gaura Bauram.
As this reporter was making ready to go away, Surender Sahani, a 35-year-old farmer, ran as much as him from behind. “I could not say it in entrance of everybody, however not all Mallahs are voting for Mr. Sahani. Not less than I’m voting for the NDA,” he says in a low voice.
Comparable disturbances are seen at Marahi Tiger, about 300 km away on the banks of the Gandak River in Bagaha, West Champaran. “Everyone seems to be being attentive to caste, so why should not we be?” says Rajesh Sahani, 37. “We didn’t vote for Sahani however determined to vote after he was appointed deputy CM.”
However 5 kilometers away in Bagaha Bazaar, vegetable sellers from the Tulaha subcaste, a part of the broader Nishad group, are unimpressed. “Mukesh Sahani has no relevance right here,” mentioned Raju Sar, a vegetable vendor, expressing assist for Narendra Modi.
Vicky Kumar, one other vegetable vendor in Turaha, has by no means even heard of Sahani. “Champaran Turaha votes for the Bharatiya Janata Get together.”
These conversations reveal the bounds of Mahagathbandhan’s guess in opposition to Sahani. Paying attention to the EBC votes, which have largely gone to the NDA over the previous 20 years, the RJD not solely gave 18 seats to VIP but in addition declared Sahani to be the face of deputy CM in Mahagathbandhan. Many see this as too huge a concession, given VIP’s restricted electoral affect and the truth that Maras in Nishad make up solely 2.6% of the inhabitants.
The maths behind playing
Nonetheless, the RJD’s transfer has a degree. In response to Bihar’s 2023 caste census, the Nishad group constitutes about 9.6% of the state’s inhabitants. This consists of a number of sub-castes comparable to Mala, Bind, Manji, Kewat, and Turha, all of that are categorised as EBC. This group stays economically weak and traditionally marginalized.
The RJD already controls the Yadav Muslim assist base (about 32% of the inhabitants), however lacks an extra 7-8% of votes, preserving it out of energy for 20 years. Nishad’s assist might fill that hole.
All through the districts of Darbhanga, Madhubani, Gopalganj, Muzaffarpur, East Champaran, West Champaran and Siwan that this reporter visited, particularly in locations the place VIP organizations exist, the folks of Mara are displaying indicators of shifting from the NDA to the RJD.
Ram Iqbal Sahani, a self-proclaimed Bharatiya Janata Get together voter from Rewa village on the banks of Budhi Gandak in Muzaffarpur, mentioned, “Every little thing is best beneath Nitish Kumar. But when Sahani turns into deputy CM, he may do one thing for our group. Most of Malars are poor.”
Lalan Sahani, 35, who works in Delhi, agrees. “Earlier, we voted for the BJP, however now Mr. Sahani is on the opposite facet, we’re in favor of him. It does not matter whether or not he turns into deputy CM or not. He’s serving to folks in our group with our cash.”
Sahani’s burden
Nevertheless, different subcastes throughout the Nishad inhabitants have proven much less enthusiasm.
“Nitish gave us roads, energy and peace… Has Mukesh Sahani ever visited our village? His get together staff should not in contact,” mentioned Shyam Babu Sir, a Turaha fish vendor in Siwan.
His complaints level to a key hole: the weak point of VIP’s grassroots community. Outdoors the Darbhanga-Muzaffarpur belt, many Nishad voters say they’ve by no means met a single get together member.
In Jainagar village in Betia’s Nautan constituency, the folks of Mara are upset over the inaccessibility of the native Bharatiya Janata Get together MLA. However most individuals are targeted on Jan Suraaj, who fielded a candidate whose mom is from their group.
“Caste could also be enticing, however sahani shouldn’t be the one reply,” mentioned Pramod Kumar, 30, a farmer from Mara. “Candidate Jan Suraaj can also be from our caste, so we’ll vote for him to defeat the BJP MLA right here. Sahani is from Darbhanga, what’s going to he do for us right here? I’ve not met any management of his get together.”
Some say VIP has a shadow of RJD’s previous.
“That is Diyala (river belt). Throughout Mr. Lal’s time, the worst crimes occurred. On daily basis, two our bodies have been discovered someplace,” recollects Malla, an aged resident of Jainagar village.
Nand Kishore Chaudhary, a Malar trainer in Poor Home village in Bagaha, feels that Sahani made a mistake in quitting the NDA. “He ought to have chanted Jai Shri Ram kehte hue aage badhte rehte (Jai Shri Ram kehte hue aage badhte rehte) and continued the march. However he’s in a rush. Tejashwi humiliated him by making him flounder for its 18 seats. I’m voting for the Congress for its candidate, however many will go along with the BJP,” he says.
Ten kilometers away in Pakalgaon, the Bhind group has agreed to a non-disclosure settlement.
Sahani’s journey
Mukesh Sahani, a Bollywood stage decorator from Darbhanga, has been politically energetic since 2013 and shaped VIP in 2018.
His get together’s electoral document shouldn’t be nice. Within the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, VIP, then in alliance with Mahagathbandhan, contested in Muzaffarpur, Khagaria and Madhubani however misplaced. Mr. Sahani himself misplaced to Mehboob Ali Kaisar of the Lok Janshakti Get together by 250,000 votes in Khagaria, securing 27% of the votes, about the identical as when the RJD contested there alone in 2014.
In 2020, in alliance with the BJP, VIP contested 11 seats and gained 4. One of many MLAs later died and the remaining joined the BJP.
For now, the ‘Son of Mala’ appears to be channeling the hopes of Mahagathbandhan past the north Bihar river belt, however just like the waters of the Gandak, the tide stays unsure.
