Nitish Kumar’s resolution to give up the chief minister’s chair and transfer to the Rajya Sabha may open up a major political alternative for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to regain a broader “social justice” house in Bihar – regardless that the celebration is on the backside of the polls with simply 25 seats within the state meeting.
For practically 20 years, Nitish supported a coalition that introduced collectively the Extraordinarily Backward Courses (EBCs), non-Yadav Backward Courses (OBCs), Mahadalits, and a big part of girls voters below the Janata Dal (United) umbrella. Along with his direct function in nationwide politics receding and the JD(U)’s future organizational energy doubtful, his subsequent defection may set off a brand new battle over who represents Bihar’s broader backward caste constituency.
RJD senses a possibility
RJD leaders have mentioned privately that Nitish’s departure may create political prospects that didn’t exist earlier than.
“This is a chance for us and we’re prepared to simply accept it. Many leaders who have been with Nitish ji due to his centrist politics and other people from socialist and secular backgrounds will gravitate in direction of us any longer,” mentioned a senior RJD official.
This calculation is partially based mostly on figures from the 2025 Bihar Meeting elections. The BJP-led NDA received about 47% of the votes, whereas the opposition RJD-led Indian Bloc acquired 38%.
“With the Bharatiya Janata Celebration changing into the dominant drive within the NDA in Bihar, it will likely be tough to repeat this 47 per cent vote share. We now have 38 per cent. JD(U) alone has acquired round 12 per cent votes. We anticipate to get half of that. Bear in mind, we want one other 4-5 per cent vote share to cross this line,” the RJD chief mentioned.
There are hopes inside the celebration that with out Nitish’s average presence, politics in Bihar may change into much more polarized.
“Bipolar elections might be good for us. We might be competing straight with the Bharatiya Janata Celebration, which can seemingly polarize the nation. It’s going to solely strengthen our vote financial institution and draw extra secular individuals to us. Prior to now, Japanese-origins had dulled the communal picture of the Bharatiya Janata Celebration,” the celebration chief added.
RJD MP Sudhakar Singh described this second from an ideological perspective. “Bihar’s political ideology has remained unbiased for the reason that days of Lalu Yadav and continued by way of the Nitish Kumar authorities. By eradicating Nitish Kumar from the state, the BJP is stifling Bihar’s unbiased political voice and making an attempt to run the state from Gujarat. Within the absence of Nitish Kumar, the onus is on the RJD to keep up Bihar’s political independence, and we are going to fulfill it,” he mentioned.
outdated political arithmetic
When considered by way of the lens of Bihar’s caste demographics, the RJD’s potential turns into clearer.
The state’s 2023 caste survey confirmed that OBCs and EBCs collectively account for about 63% of the state’s inhabitants, with EBCs alone accounting for about 36% and OBCs accounting for about 27%. Yadavs, the RJD’s core caste base, account for about 14-15%.
For years, Nitish’s political undertaking has been constructed round breaking the backward caste bloc that was consolidated below Lalu within the Nineteen Nineties. By carving out sub-categories akin to Athi Pishdas (EBCs) and Mahadalits, increasing focused welfare schemes, and giving symbolic recognition to those teams, he step by step weaned extra teams away from the RJD.
If the JD(U) is systematically weakened with out Nitish on the helm, a few of these voters may change into politically fluid once more. In principle, this provides the RJD a possibility to rebuild a broader backward caste coalition.
Some leaders inside the celebration are declaring similarities with the event in Uttar Pradesh. There, the Samajwadi Celebration (SP) took benefit of the decline of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Celebration (BSP) to draw some Dalit voters and broaden its attain to non-Yadav OBC teams. Within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP received 37 seats within the state, beating the BJP’s 33 seats.
RJD leaders imagine that comparable social engineering in Bihar may strengthen backward castes once more.
Voting switch restrictions
Nevertheless, this chance comes with important limitations. Nitish’s decreased function might not robotically shift the JD(U)’s voting base to the RJD.
A few of these voters have already been absorbed into the broader NDA ecosystem by way of welfare schemes and the appeals of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. One other part stays cautious of returning to an RJD-dominated political order.
The notion that the celebration is overwhelmingly Yadav-centric stays a key barrier. Within the 2025 polls, 75 of the 142 candidates fielded by the RJD have been OBCs. Nevertheless, 51 of them have been Yadavs. The EBC quantity was 11 and 13 tickets have been despatched to Kushwaha. By means of allies akin to VIP and IP Singh’s India Inclusive Celebration, the RJD drew in a number of EBC teams, however each remained restricted to subcastes.
Issues persist amongst communities akin to Koeris, Kushwahas, Telis, Nonias and Nishads over whether or not political energy below the RJD umbrella will actually be shared.
Tejashwi challenges
Subsequently, for Tejashwi Yadav, who presently heads the RJD, the difficulty is as a lot an organizational one as it’s an electoral one.
If the RJD desires to chop off a number of the JD(U)’s social base, it might want to broaden its illustration inside the celebration past alliances with smaller caste-based events. It means rising the share of tickets and management positions for non-Yadav OBC and EBC leaders and constructing trusted second-tier leaders from these communities.
Equally essential might be addressing deep-seated issues about governance and regulation and order that proceed to form political perceptions amongst many non-Yadav voters.
a contested panorama
Subsequently, the approaching years are prone to see intense contestation over political house for backward castes in Bihar.
If Tejashwi succeeds in restructuring the RJD and increasing its management, the celebration may seize a lot of the JD(U)’s social base and re-emerge because the mainstay of “social justice” politics within the state.
But when resistance inside the celebration prevents significant change inside the celebration, the end result may very well be a fragmented scenario through which the BJP, a weakened JD(U), smaller caste-based organizations, and the RJD entrenched in its MY (Muslim-Yadav) base compete for a slice of the voters.
In that sense, Nitish’s departure doesn’t simply mark the tip of an period, however the starting of a brand new wrestle over who will outline the following section of backward caste politics in Bihar.
