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India’s actual gross home product (GDP) progress charge within the second quarter (July-September) might be over 7.5 per cent on boosted consumption after the Items and Providers Tax (GST) charge minimize, the State Financial institution of India’s (SBI) analysis arm mentioned on Tuesday (November 18, 2025).
The Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) had anticipated second-quarter GDP progress of seven%.
“Development was supported by elevated funding exercise, restoration in rural consumption, dynamism in companies and manufacturing, supported by structural reforms corresponding to GST rationalization, and in addition contributed to unleashing a festive temper that decisively marks the triumph of hope over hype,” SBI Analysis mentioned in a report.
“With continued robust numbers from festival-led gross sales, the proportion of main indicators of consumption and demand throughout agriculture, trade and companies sectors exhibiting acceleration elevated from 70% within the first quarter to 83% within the second quarter. Primarily based on the estimated mannequin, actual GDP progress is predicted to be 7.5% within the second quarter of 2026, with the opportunity of an surprising upside,” the report mentioned.
“Nevertheless, dangers stay from unstable international commodity markets and doable spillovers from commerce disruptions. Total, India’s near-term outlook stays strong, with macroeconomic stability offering scope for sustained medium-term progress,” the report mentioned.
In keeping with an evaluation by SBI Analysis, the full home GST assortment may very well be round Rs 1,490 crore in November 2025 (filed in October 2025 however not in November 2025), a rise of 6.8% year-on-year.
Mixed with IGST of Rs 51,000 billion and import discount, GST collections might cross Rs 2 billion in November, pushed by peak demand in the course of the Christmas season as a result of decreased GST charges and enhanced compliance, with most states turning optimistic, the report mentioned.
The report mentioned that over the past Christmas season (September-October 2025), consumption grew considerably as a result of GST rationalization, with first indications coming from evaluation of credit score and debit card spending patterns throughout latitudes, with service provider classes corresponding to bank cards, auto, grocery shops, electronics, furnishings and journey exhibiting vital progress.
Amongst e-commerce channels, spending on utilities and companies accounted for 38%, adopted by spending on supermarkets and grocery shops at 17%, it added, with journey businesses accounting for a 9% share.
Bank card spending by metropolis additionally reveals that whereas demand is rising throughout areas, mid-sized cities are seeing probably the most progress, as e-com gross sales have been usually optimistic throughout cities.
“Resulting from GST rationalization, debit card expenditures additionally confirmed a rise in all main states in September and October ’25 in comparison with September and October ’24.
Nevertheless, for debit playing cards, amongst e-commerce spend, metros confirmed the best progress (8%) in September/October 2025 in comparison with September/October 2024, adopted by city areas (7%).
“Deciphering consumption elasticities of main sectors based mostly on adjustments in weighted efficient GST tax charges submit GST rationalization reveals that each one sectors besides textiles are extremely elastic with robust consumption response as a result of GST rationalization,” the report mentioned.
“A discount within the efficient GST charge ought to encourage client financial savings. A juxtaposition of the GST charge and per capita month-to-month consumption expenditure (MPCE) (Family Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-2024) reveals that buyers might save 7% on their month-to-month consumption expenditure on common based mostly on preliminary estimates, and will rise additional if extra knowledge is offered,” it added.
Concerning knowledge on automobile gross sales, it mentioned all areas witnessed double-digit progress (19%) in automobile gross sales, with the best progress in rural areas adopted by city areas with 39% of automobiles offered within the worth vary of Rs 10 million and above.
City and metro facilities are additionally witnessing accelerating progress throughout the worth and quantity matrix of high-end variants/fashions/manufacturers (Rs 20,000,000 crore) and rising premiumisation, it mentioned.
