India’s crude oil imports from Russia rose within the first half of October, in line with ship monitoring knowledge, reversing a three-month decline in imports seen from July to September as refineries returned to full capability to satisfy pageant demand.
Imports from Russia fell from greater than 2 million barrels per day in June to 1.6 million barrels per day in September.
Nonetheless, tanker monitoring knowledge from early October suggests a restoration. Shipments of Urals and different Russian grades to India are choosing up tempo, supported by new reductions, on the again of weak demand and transportation flexibility in Western markets.
Imports in October had been about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a rise of about 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the earlier month, in line with preliminary knowledge from international commerce evaluation agency Kpler (though this month’s knowledge is topic to revision).
The info pertains to the interval earlier than US President Donald Trump’s October 15 assertion claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt imports of Russian crude oil. Nonetheless, Ministry of Exterior Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal mentioned he was not conscious of any such telephone dialog.
“Strain ways”
Sumit Litria, principal analysis analyst (refining and modeling) at Kpler, believes Trump’s feedback had been extra possible a stress tactic associated to commerce negotiations than a mirrored image of an impending coverage change.
“Russian barrels stay deeply built-in into India’s power system for financial, contractual and strategic causes,” he mentioned.
Indian refiners additionally mentioned they’d not but been requested by the federal government to cease importing Russian crude.
After Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia and withheld provides over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India turned to buying Russian crude oil, which was being bought at discounted costs. In consequence, Russia’s share of complete oil imports in 2019-20 was just one.7%, nevertheless it elevated to 40% in 2023-24, making it the biggest oil provider to India.
Within the first half of October, Russia continued to get pleasure from its standing. Iraq is the second largest provider of crude oil to India with roughly 1.01 million barrels per day, adopted by Saudi Arabia with 830,000 barrels per day. The US has overtaken the UAE to develop into India’s fourth largest provider at 647,000 barrels per day. The UAE equipped 394,000 barrels per day, in line with Kpler.
vitally essential to india
Litoria mentioned Russian crude stays structurally important to India, accounting for about 34% of complete imports and providing deep reductions that refiners can not afford to disregard.
“There was a whole lot of discuss in regards to the drop in imports between July and September. This was not as a consequence of tariff considerations, however relatively as a consequence of seasonal elements, particularly elevated upkeep actions at PSU refineries similar to MRPL, CPCL and BORL,” he mentioned.
In reality, most supply contracts via early September had been finalized six to 10 weeks prematurely, that means the vast majority of offers had been finalized by July thirty first. Due to this fact, the July-September drop was primarily as a consequence of decrease crude oil throughput at refineries considering upkeep schedules.
Even with reductions narrowing from 2023, Russian barrels stay probably the most economical feedstock choices accessible to Indian refiners, because of landed reductions and excessive GPW (gross manufacturing worth) margin manufacturing from grades similar to Urals.
Low cost charges averaged $3.5 to $5 per barrel, up from $1.5 to $2 per barrel in July and August.
As with India’s pre-2022 crude, changing Russian crude is not going to be troublesome as extra barrels might movement in from the Center East, Latin America and america.
Indian refineries have minimal technological constraints as they will course of totally different crude oil grades.
However whether or not New Delhi is able to make that change is one other query, he mentioned. “The fact is that lowering imports from Russia can be troublesome, costly and dangerous.”
Substitutions contain increased prices (freight prices, decrease low cost charges) and require speedy growth with a number of suppliers. If margins are compressed or retail costs rise, the outcome could possibly be inflation, political backlash, and lowered refinery profitability.
He believes refiners will not depart a greenback on the desk except the federal government tells them to, simply as they did with Iranian barrels. Though there’s a rising transfer in direction of diversification, contracts for Russian crude oil are usually signed six to 10 weeks earlier than arrival. Rewiring every part takes time. In reality, Indian refiners are progressively increasing their basket, to not substitute Russia within the quick time period, however to extend power safety, continuity and adaptability.
India has constantly pursued an unbiased international and power coverage, balancing financial pursuits with diplomatic relations. A sudden shift away from Russian oil would undermine the nation’s power safety technique, however is unlikely except formal sanctions much like these towards Iran and Venezuela are imposed.
“At this stage, it’s unlikely that India will implement structural cuts purely in response to political stress from the US and EU. If the US will increase stress, Indian refiners might make token cuts of round 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day to exhibit diversification and appease their Western companions. Nonetheless, these cuts are more likely to be extra symbolic than revolutionary,” it added.
An choice is to extend imports from america to appease President Trump, however the high value could be restricted to 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. It’s because US grades face each logistical disadvantages, financial points, and compatibility points with India’s refining system.
In keeping with Kpler knowledge, India’s imports of U.S. crude oil will common 310,000 barrels per day by 2025, up from 199,000 barrels per day in 2024, reaching an annual excessive of about 500,000 barrels per day (forecasted in October).
issued – October 17, 2025 3:05 PM IST
