New Delhi: The Congress-led alliance has returned to energy in Kerala. However that seems to be solely a slight deviation from the occasion’s presence in state assemblies, which has in any other case been on a near-consistent downward development, ThePrint’s evaluation of the energy of the occasion’s MLAs within the states since 2007, the 12 months Rahul Gandhi took management after being appointed normal secretary of the All India Congress Committee, exhibits.
In 2008, the occasion had 1,204 all-India MLAs. Nevertheless, the variety of Congress MLAs has fallen by nearly 44% since then, to round 676 MLAs in 2026, in line with information compiled by ThePrint. In parallel, the BJP grew by 101% from 889 MLAs in 2008 to 1,787 in 2026.
Out of a complete of 4,120 MLAs in India, one in two MLAs now belong to the BJP, whereas just one in six are members of the Congress.
The information analyzed by ThePrint is predicated on the occasion affiliation of candidates who’ve received parliamentary elections over time. Subsequent defections from the occasion and by-elections usually are not included.
Rahul was given direct duty for the Indian Youth Congress and the Nationwide College students’ Union of India in 2007, however he started taking part in a key position within the occasion’s decision-making course of after his mom, then occasion president Sonia Gandhi, gave him digital freedom. She formally handed over the mantle to him in 2017.
The final time the occasion crossed the 1,200 mark since 2008 was in 2012 with 1,224 MLAs, which fell by 25 per cent to 911 MLAs in 2014. The graphs of Congress numbers and BJP MLAs intersect and reverse in 2013-14, with the latter trending upwards thereafter.
Rahul was appointed vice-president of the Indian Nationwide Congress in January 2013, and he assumed main administration of the group, whereas Sonia took on a extra ceremonial position. He changed her as parliament speaker in 2017, however resigned following the 2019 parliament debacle, leaving her to take over as interim chief.
In October 2022, Mallikarjun Kharge assumed the workplace of President. Nevertheless, though Rahul has not held a proper position since 2019, he has turn out to be the de facto chief of the occasion by way of decision-making. Rahul has been a member of Parliament for 22 years and is presently the Chief of Opposition in Lok Sabha.
Chandrachul Singh, a political science professor at Delhi College, holds Rahul alone chargeable for the decline of the Congress. “He does not perceive how politics works. It is easy… his political tradition could be very alienated from the political tradition that we stay in,” he instructed ThePrint.
Nevertheless, Rahul Verma, a fellow on the Delhi-based assume tank Middle for Coverage Analysis, doesn’t consider that MPs are solely chargeable for the declining presence in parliament because the occasion is witnessing a structural decline.
“In case you draw a 10-year chart from 1952 to 2024, the Congress has misplaced seats and vote share in state assemblies,” Verma stated.
“Rahul Gandhi may also be held accountable as a result of in a way he has been the face of the occasion for no less than 12-15 years. You can’t put all of the blame for the decline on him, however he will certainly be chargeable for not having the ability to reverse this development,” he added.
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plummeting
Explaining the graph clinically, Verma identified that the interval when the graph of the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Celebration reversed was in 2013-14, when the Congress was dealing with losses in a number of states.
“This was the second when Narendra Modi grew to become, in a way, the central financial institution’s election chairman. Since then, the central financial institution has added extra states to its fold yearly. The legislatures of those states have gotten marginalized,” he elaborates.
For instance, in Haryana, the place the BJP received solely 4 seats in 2009, it had 47 MLAs in 2014.
Equally, in Assam, the Congress was in energy for 15 years and the Bharatiya Janata Celebration received solely 5 seats in 2011. Nevertheless, gears modified in 2016 when the Bharatiya Janata Celebration received 60 seats.
In 2017, the BJP had the most important victory in Uttar Pradesh, successful by a landslide with 312 seats. From 1,051 MLAs in 2016 to 1,348 MLAs in 2017, a 28% improve.
“So what you might be seeing is the primary part of the growth of the BJP from 2013 to 2018, which is the primary part of the decline of the Congress underneath Rahul Gandhi,” Verma asserts.
Within the years since Rahul was appointed occasion president in December 2017 till 2021, the graph exhibits that each the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Celebration’s affect throughout states has plateaued. It’s because since 2018, the Bharatiya Janata Celebration has misplaced a number of the states it had received, similar to Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, or the Congress has received nearly equal numbers of seats in a number of states.
“Nevertheless, from 2022-23 onwards, the second part of growth of the BJP will start underneath Prime Minister Modi,” Verma additional explains.
In 2024, when Gandhi was appointed as an MP, the Congress had 669 MLAs, the bottom quantity within the occasion’s historical past. In 2025, the quantity was additional lowered, and the variety of occasion MLAs was restricted to 656 throughout the nation. For the 2026 Meeting polls, 20 MLAs have been added to that quantity.
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Wipeout in some states
Through the years, Congress has witnessed full collapse in sure states.
For instance, in Gujarat, the state struggled in opposition to the BJP in 2017, successful 77 seats in 182 constituency assemblies to the BJP’s 99, however within the subsequent 2022 polls it received solely 17 seats to the BJP’s 156.
In Andhra Pradesh, there have been 185 MLAs in 2008, however after the state break up in 2014, the variety of MLAs decreased sharply. In Maharashtra, it received 82 out of 288 seats in 2009, however in 2024 it received solely 16 seats.
The Congress-led United Democratic Entrance’s victory in Kerala earlier this month made it the fourth state after Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh to have a Congress-led CM.
Nevertheless, the victory lowered occasion membership to single digits in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The occasion additionally fell brief in Assam, which it had dominated for 15 consecutive years till mid-2016. In the meantime, the BJP has made enormous strides in West Bengal in a decade, from successful its first three seats in 2016 to 207 seats now.
Analyst Chandrachul Singh opines that Rahul’s strategic strategy will not be rooted in India’s political system.
“For instance, take a look at how the Bharatiya Janata Celebration began campaigning… it began with the youth. Mr. Rahul does not appear to be getting near the youth, particularly within the centre. He’s used to the youth in Kerala within the south. He’s most likely very used to the youth in Tamil Nadu as properly. However you’ll not discover him in the identical consolation zone within the north of the nation, particularly within the cow belt,” he asserts.
(Edited by Manat Chu)
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