Analysts mentioned India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged in June, whereas crude shipments from the United Arab Emirates hit near-record ranges as refiners sought to safe provides forward of a full restoration of provides from Gulf producers following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
India imported a median of two.66 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in June by means of Friday (June 19, 2026), up from 1.91 million barrels per day in Could, knowledge from maritime and commodity data agency Kupler confirmed, cementing Moscow’s place because the nation’s high oil provider.
Imports from the United Arab Emirates from June to June 19 have been 636,000 barrels per day (barrels), barely under the file excessive of 644,000 barrels per day in Could, whereas Venezuela shipped 209,000 barrels per day, making it India’s fourth-largest crude oil provider behind Saudi Arabia’s 384,000 barrels.
Imports from the USA plunged from 252,000 barrels per day in Could to 91,000 barrels per day, in response to Kpler knowledge.
The acquisition confirms India’s technique to diversify its sourcing, with Russian barrels remaining enticing as a consequence of reductions and UAE provides serving to to offset uncertainty surrounding transport by means of the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway.
India, the world’s third largest vitality importer, depends closely on the Gulf area for crude oil, LNG, and LPG. Provides have been disrupted after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following assaults by the USA and Israel, blocking the vitality artery that carries about 20% of the world’s oil consumption and is a significant export route for Gulf states together with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Oil shipments by means of the Strait of Hormuz started to choose up late final week after the USA and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. However the ceasefire stays fragile, with Iranian authorities accusing Israel of violating the settlement, elevating considerations in regards to the sustainability of the restart.
Whereas the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is anticipated to convey the earliest aid to India’s liquefied petroleum fuel (LPG) provides, crude oil and liquefied pure fuel (LNG) imports are more likely to normalize extra slowly because the nation has already tailored to months of disruption by means of diversification and various provide routes, mentioned Sumit Litria, senior supervisor and mannequin at Kpler.
The affect of the Strait of Hormuz disruption various broadly by gas, with LPG rising as essentially the most affected commodity, though crude oil and LNG imports confirmed relative resilience because of various sourcing and bypass infrastructure.
Litoria expects that within the early phases of reopening, Gulf producers will deal with clearing stranded cargo and restoring transport volumes earlier than considerably rising exports.
“Whereas the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) will likely be a significant milestone for international vitality markets, the affect on India is more likely to range broadly by commodity,” he mentioned.
“India stays one of many largest importers of hydrocarbons (crude oil, LPG, LNG) within the Center East, however in contrast to LPG, which was essentially the most severely affected, crude oil and LNG imports have proven relative resilience by means of the disruption.”
In consequence, the restoration is more likely to be sequential, with LPG flows normalizing first, adopted by LNG and crude oil. “In our base case for a gradual reopening from early July, the preliminary focus can be on clearing caught cargo and restoring site visitors earlier than Gulf exporters considerably enhance exports,” he mentioned.
India imports about 88% of its crude oil wants, virtually half of its pure fuel wants and about 65% of its LPG consumption.
Earlier than the battle, the Gulf area equipped about half of India’s crude oil imports, two-thirds of its LNG demand, and virtually 90% of India’s LPG imports.
Latest indicators of normalization are already rising. Three Indian-flagged oil tankers carrying greater than 860,000 tonnes of crude oil and an Indian LNG provider have efficiently resumed transit by means of the strategic waterway following an settlement between the US and Iran geared toward ending hostilities.
Litoria mentioned Russian crude oil continues to underpin India’s oil import technique.
June imports are anticipated to exceed 2.35 million barrels per day, doubtlessly setting a file, supported by aggressive reductions and steady refinery demand.
He expects provides from Russia to stay the cornerstone of India’s import basket even after Hormuz normalization, given favorable financial circumstances and provide safety.
Indian refiners have additionally elevated purchases from the Atlantic Basin and Venezuela since March to offset provide constraints within the Gulf area. Venezuelan crude oil imports in June are estimated at 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, an vital diversification possibility for refineries processing heavy grades, however sanctions dangers and manufacturing constraints proceed to cloud the long-term outlook.
The most important change occurred in LPG. America has emerged as a significant provider, helped by long-term provide agreements signed final 12 months, after disruptions curtailed shipments to the Gulf area. Though this technique improved diversification, it additionally elevated transportation prices as a consequence of longer transportation distances.
Whereas Gulf suppliers are anticipated to regularly regain market share as Hormuz normalizes, India’s sourcing base is more likely to proceed to develop bigger than it was earlier than the disaster, Litoria mentioned.
Though India stays structurally depending on Gulf vitality provides, the disaster has accelerated diversification efforts. Crude oil imports have been eased by elevated purchases from Russia, Brazil and Venezuela, whereas LNG patrons sourced extra cargo from nations together with Oman, Nigeria and the US.
He mentioned the reopening of the Port of Hormuz is anticipated to ease freight prices, cut back provide dangers and ease vitality costs globally, warning {that a} full return to pre-crisis commerce patterns might take weeks or months as transport corporations, insurers and merchants regularly regain confidence within the route.
