Nishant Kumar’s sudden exit from Bihar politics got here as a shock to many within the Janata Dal (Unification) circles. They have been of the view that his son Nishant Kumar could be despatched to the Rajya Sabha and step by step take his father’s place. There have been robust rumors that the script was modified on Wednesday afternoon and the CM could be transferred to the Rajya Sabha instead of his son.
This has a number of implications and has created some uncertainty in Bihar politics. Voices within the state’s energy corridors say the primary change is for the BJP, which is more likely to have its personal CM, to formally turn into the NDA’s most important accomplice. The problem for the JD(U) is to discover a successor to Kumar. Some really feel that Nishant’s formal entry into the nation has been delayed and that he’s a simpleton who lacks the political acumen of his father.
Fast challenges for NDA
From a beauty standpoint, with Kumar in Delhi, politics in Bihar will look considerably polarized, with the BJP versus the RJD. The JD(U) might want to show that it will possibly preserve the social base carved out by Kumar, which is made up of Kurmi and Extraordinarily Backward Class (EBC) teams, and that proof will solely come within the subsequent elections. Till then, a way of polarization is anticipated, however the RJD’s poor efficiency final time means that the BJP could have the higher hand within the first place.
The notion of polarity additionally signifies that Nitish Kumar’s social base, particularly the EBC, seems extra accessible to all three events till it turns into clear which facet they’re leaning in direction of.
Observers recommend that the BJP is more likely to substitute Mr. Kumar with Mr. Kurmi, Mr. Kushwaha or the EBC, with Samrat Chaudhary of the Kushwaha faction more likely to be the front-runner for the CM put up except the BJP does one thing stunning. A senior BJP chief mentioned the JD(U) is more likely to have a “important say” within the choice of the brand new CM. Referring to Dwelling Minister Amit Shah’s go to to the state, the chief mentioned, “From Samrat Chaudhary to Vijay Kumar Sinha, there are a number of robust candidates for the put up. Issues will turn into clearer by the tip of right now.”
As a robust NDA accomplice, the Bharatiya Janata Occasion’s speedy problem will likely be successful over Nitish’s vote base. Even when the JD(U) isn’t a robust drive, the present equation within the state during which Mr. Kumar would be the decisive consider forming the federal government could break down sooner or later.
What Nitish meant to Bihar
What set Nitish Kumar aside from different leaders was the truth that he remained in energy no matter whether or not his get together was the most important or not within the state. In 2005, when he first turned term-limited CM, the RJD had 75 seats, the JD(U) 55 and the BJP 37. In 2010, the JD(U) had 115 seats, the BJP 91 and the RJD 22. In 2015, when Kumar entered the polls in alliance with the RJD, the RJD had 80 seats, the JD(U) 71 and the BJP 53. In 2020, when Kumar rejoined the NDA, the RJD received 75 seats, the BJP 74 and the JD(U) 43. In 2025, the BJP received 89 seats, JD(U) 85 and RJD 25.
Kumar has been on the middle of Bihar politics ever since he turned CM for the second time in 2005 for a seven-day time period from March 3 to 10, 2000. Since November 24, 2005, the one brief interval during which he has not been the CM is the 278-day interval in 2014-2015 when Jitan Ram Manjhi was the CM.
Mr. Kumar held the keys to state energy and the alliances he was part of all the time received state elections. Although Mr. Kumar has been a CM for 20 years nearly uninterrupted, deftly shifting between alliances which have failed 5 instances prior to now 11 years, incomes him the nickname Parthu Ram.
His enchantment to Bihar had two elements. Internally, he emerged as a champion of the EBC, and externally, not less than in his first two phrases, he led to a makeover of Bihar, with folks outdoors the state extensively recognizing him as the person who overturned the RJD’s so-called “jungle rule” and improved the state’s infrastructure.
Excellent your caste calculations in Bihar
Kumar was conscious that his personal caste, the Kurmis, who make up 2.8% of the inhabitants, have been numerically smaller than the RJD’s core base, the Yadavs, who made up about 14% of the inhabitants. So he determined to divide the brand new constituency between the EBC, ladies, and Mahadalits (Dalits excluding Paswans, which ultimately disappeared as they included Paswans on this class).
Since 2006, Nitish has launched a number of measures to strengthen his affect inside the EBC. In 2006, his cupboard accredited 20% reservation in EBCs of district committees, panchayat samitis and gram panchayats. 4 years later, he introduced a brand new entrepreneurship scheme underneath which eligible members would obtain a state subsidy of Rs 1 million to arrange small and medium enterprises.
Nitish’s method to the EBC was seen as a response to the Muslim-Yadav assist base of his ally-turned-rival Lalu Prasad, who helped preserve the RJD in energy from 1990 to 2005. Lalu’s rise signaled the decline of higher caste dominance within the state, using on the wave of Mandals promising social justice to OBCs. Nevertheless, there was a gradual realization that Lal’s energy meant energy primarily for the Yadavs and Ashraf Muslims, an influential group of OBCs. His appointment as CM had a catalytic impact. Whereas this made all backward communities extra bold, the EBC realized that it was not the actual beneficiary of the RJD regime.
The 2023 Bihar Caste Survey, launched by Kumar himself, additional underlined the electoral significance of EBCs, exhibiting them barely forward of Dalits when it comes to land possession and wealth. After the survey was printed, Nitish had determined to extend the quota for SCs, STs, OBCs and EBCs within the state from 50% to 65%, which was later reversed by the Patna Excessive Courtroom.
In creating EBC, Kumar has achieved one thing else. Whereas the EBC in northern and central India has largely shifted to the BJP underneath Narendra Modi, except UP within the 2024 meeting polls, Mr. Kumar stays key to the EBC in Bihar.
JD(U) Working President Sanjay Jha mentioned. indian categorical Throughout final 12 months’s Bihar meeting elections, Mr. Kumar additionally carved out a singular political constituency amongst ladies by schemes such because the Jeevika Didis, which supplied bicycles to schoolgirls and gave ladies 50% reservation in panchayats.
face of bihar
Outdoors Bihar, Kumar has been its face for 20 years. Growing the picture of a ‘vikas purush’ (improvement officer) in his first decade as CM, his tenure as CM has largely overturned the detrimental stereotypes surrounding Bihar and eliminated a number of the derogatory stereotypes that emerged resulting from perceptions of Lalu’s lawless days. He thus represented Bihar in all of India and acquired much more assist within the elections. The slogan ‘Bihar mein bahar hain, Nitish Kumar hai (There’s spring in Bihar, there’s nonetheless Nitish Kumar)’ is a testomony to this.
Kumar has a number of different strengths which have sustained his model regardless of the U-turn. He has not been charged with any severe corruption expenses, setting him aside from Lalu Prasad’s household, who’ve been combating a number of expenses. And for a very long time, he’s the one native politician within the nation who didn’t promote his son Nishant Kumar into politics. Now that Nishant has been promoted, many are questioning whether or not it’s too late.
For the Bharatiya Janata Occasion, Kumar can also be an underappreciated ideological asset. The thought promoted by the Congress for the reason that Nineteen Nineties was that the battle for ideological supremacy in India could be fought between the secular imaginative and prescient espoused by the Congress and the “communal” or Hindutva imaginative and prescient of the BJP.
Rahul Gandhi has additionally repeated the identical in recent times. However Mr. Kumar took the wind out of this concept by seamlessly transitioning from the NDA to the Opposition and vice versa. What would turn into of the ‘secular-community’ dichotomy in politics if Kumar might cross from one camp to the opposite at will, and be enthusiastically enlisted by each camps?
Mr. Kumar’s final parliamentary election marketing campaign acquired overwhelming assist from voters. indian categorical I seen the immense goodwill towards him, as if folks have been saying goodbye to him with gratitude. His absence might open up potentialities for Bihar politics in some ways.
— With enter from Jatin Anand
